If HRC can't win major urban areas how can she win election?
Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 12:59:28 PM PDT
Hillary has repeatedly indicated that Obama can't win because he can't win the big states. The problem with her argument is that Democratic strengths lay not in the rural areas where she tends to win most frequently, but in the Urban areas where she tends to be disproportionately weaker. What guarantee does she have that she'll do as well against McCain in the rural areas?
Does she honestly think she can win rural Ohio and Pennsylvania? Voting trends would suggest otherwise.
So let's take a look at who won most of the Urban areas. After all, what's good for the goose, etc.
Granted she won in all the major cities in New York, but she's a Senator there. Not surprisingly, she lost all the major cities in Illinois where Obama is Senator!
OK, she can win California, because she can win Los Angeles, San Diego and San Jose, but she still can't win Sacramento.
She can also win Florida if no one campaigns there just based on name recognition alone. She can also win Michigan if she's the only name on the ballot.
But what about the rest of the states with 10 or more Electoral college votes?
She can win Arizona because she can win Phoenix and Tuscon.
But what happens after that?
She may have won Pittsburgh, but how can she win Pennsylvania if she can't win Philadelphia?
How can she win Ohio, if she can't win Columbus, Cincinnati, and Cleveland?
In Texas she won El Paso, but how can she win Texas, if she can't win Austin, Dallas and Houston?
How can she win New Jersey, if she can't win Trenton and Newark.
How can she win Massachusetts, if she can't win Boston?
How can she win Connecticut, if she can't win Concord, Stamford, Bridgeport or New Haven?
How can she win Missouri, if she can't win Kansas City and St. Louis?
How can she win Washington State, if she can't win anywhere in Washington?
How can she win Minnesota if she can't win Minneapolis, St. Paul or Rochester?
How can she win Wisconsin if she can't win Madison, Milwaukee or Green Bay?
How can she win Maryland if she can't win Metro DC, Baltimore, Annapolis or Fredrick?
How can she win Virginia, if she can't win Metro DC, Richmond, or Norfolk?
As for Southern states likely to go Republican, she has no shot in Georgia, but how could she win it if she can't win Atlanta, Augusta, Savannah or Columbus?
How can she win Tennessee if she can't win Memphis, Chattanooga and Nashville?
Indiana and North Carolina haven't voted, but do we have any illusion who will win Indianapolis, Charlotte, and other major cities?
So basically if we tally up States based on who wins the predominance of big cities in the state (Democrats strengths after all), Clinton can win California, New York, Arizona, Florida, if no campaigns there and Michigan, if no one else is on the ballot.
Lets see that's:
Clinton EV's: 140
Obama EV's: 240 (Obama gets Ohio because Philadelphia is bigger than Pittsburgh)
You get the idea.
My point here, is not that she can't win many of these states any more than Obama can't win most of these states just because he lost the primary in most of them. She asserts that she can win big states like Ohio and Pennsylvania even though she lost in all of the major urban areas in those two states.
Of course Clinton's answer would be that she can win over Obama supporters in the Urban areas, but Obama wouldn't be able to win over her supporters elsewhere. We are playing Clinton-ball after all.