Hillary Clinton made a speech on Wednesday that illustrates the problem with and the power of speeches and underscores why accusing Obama of doing nothing more than making speeches misses the mark.

Speeches are powerful things.  I don't mean just the kind that motivate people to hope, or to motivate society to change.  

Speeches are 99% of all foreign policy.  Speeches demonstrate leadership and character, but they also signal policy directions.  In fact, it is the rare occurrence in which presidents are expected to take a call at 3am and make a decision on the spot.  Often the purpose of a 3am phone call is to alert the President of an oncoming crisis. The apparatus of government is often already in motion to deal with a problem that will likely play out over days if not weeks.

It is widely being reported that Prince Harry is being pulled from Afghanistan amid concerns about security after Drudge posted news stories about his whereabouts in Afghanistan.

We all know that he would be a likely target of attacks, if his whereabouts were known, so many in the British and foreign press had voluntarily engaged in a press blackout. In addition, the Ministry of Defense knew that identifiying Prince Harry's whereabouts would not only expose the Prince himself to attacks, but also endanger the soldiers he was stationed with. Did the safety of British troops in Afghanistan matter to Matt Drudge? Of course not. Once again a Right-wing journalists is exposed for his disdain for the safety of the troops.  This time, the safety of our allies.

It's official.  W is worst President of modern era.  Zogby (Not my favorite pollster) asked who they though was the greatest President.  Roosevelt tops the list, with 69% saying great or near great, while JFK comes in a close second at 67%.

Bush comes in near the bottom at 22%, with generous support from his kool-aide drinking fan club.  Forty peercent of Republicans thought he was great or near great.  More interesting is the fact that Bush takses honors as the worst President.  

On Monday, Hillary Clinton mocked both Barack Obama and Obama supporters by suggesting that hope was something that could not be attained.  People need to get real.  That the sky won't open, with a singing choir to shower the American people with change.  Change will only occur with the right person using elbow grease.  That person, of course, would need to be Clinton.

For many this message of reality resonates with them.  They don't understand the message of hope, nor the message of change.  Even though Obama talks about the difficulty of change, Clinton still dismisses it as wishful thinking.

Today Hillary accused Obama of Rovian tactics because opf his mailer regarding health care and NAFTA.  I'm not here to argue about whther they are in fact, Rovian tactics; Personally I beleive Georgia10 and PsiFighter37 address this issue adequately. What I want to talk about instead is who truly has the ability to lead.  Clinton says that only she has the experience and strength to lead.  That she will be ready on day 1 and that Obama won't.

As the title of this diary asserts, I believe Obama will win VA and likely win it by 20+ points.  For those Obama supporters who cringe at this statement, know that I do not say this out of false modesty; I do not say this just because I support Obama.  Furthermore, I and many other Virginians like me will go to the polls on Tuesday in record numbers and we will vote for Obama.  We will not take this election for granted.

Therein lies Hillary blind spot.  We will not take this election for granted and we Virginians will not be taken for granted.

Follow me below the fold.

In Tuesday's primaries two things became abundantly clear.  

1. Obama can't win in mostly white states, without a high African American turnout.

2. America is blacker than we thought.

More below the fold

One of the most glaring statistics in the excellent analysis conducted by Poblano is that Obama dominates the race in the number of field offices in each state.  Only in MA, NY and CT does Clinton achieve parity.

Observations:

Boots on the ground matter.  Name recognition, endorsements and airtime will help Hillary, but Obama has proved time and again that he can increase turnout with his incredible ground game.  The fact that Obama has a ground game in every single state impresses me on two levels.

  1. First, it means he has a grassroots organization on the ground to help get out voters, more so than Hillary.

  2. Second, and more importantly, is the fact that he cares enough about the state to have a physical presence.

Congressman Tom Davis (R-VA) has chosen to take a pass on the Virginia Senate seat, paving the way for Gilmore to become the Virginia GOPs candidate for Senate.  This virtually assures that Mark Warner will take the Senate seat next year.  Gilmore is extremely unpopular in VA. and it is likely that Warner will bury him in the election.

Interestingly, Davis cited "the Republican Party's increasingly narrow focus on candidates who pass conservative litmus tests" as one of the reasons for taking a pass.  It doesn't help that the Virginia GOP decided to have a state convention to elect their primary candidate rather than a primary, which would have favored Davis.

According to WaPo, Mark Warner raised 1.1 Million dollars in the 2 and a half week period following his announcement to run for Senate in VA on September 13.

Between his announcement and Sept. 30, the close of the latest federal campaign finance reporting period, Warner collected about $1.1 million, with no major organized fund raising events. He has about $1 million in the bank.

For the 2008 election, the Virginia GOP has chosen to nominate with a convention the person who will represent the GOP in the general election to replace Retiring Senator John Warner.  This format was chosen over a general primary, which has been the mode of selecting primary candidates in at least the past 12 years.  According to the GOP they are doing this to save money.  Personally, that's bullshit.  Basically, the GOP is attempting to subvert the popular will of Virginians.

This is a fundamentally an undemocratic form of nomination.  Now rather than everyday Virginians having a say in the election, only party regulars will be able to nominate their Senator.

Interestingly, this move is likely to guarantee that John Gilmore will be nominated for Senator rather than Tom Davis.

First let me start by saying I approve of the intent behind the legislation.  

Ultimately the problem with the current legislation is not the reasoned purpose behind accountability and closing the loopholes that allow Blackwater to operate in Iraq with impunity.

The problem is that Blackwater will continue to operate in Iraq with impunity, little oversight and almost no accountability.

More below the fold

I will present why as well as what I think the legislations did achieve.

Joe Lieberman and the Bush propaganda report can say all they want about how much safer it is in Iraq because of the surge, but ultimately their words ring hollow.  Personally the only people worth polling are those whose lives are most affected by it: the Iraqi people.  In fact, in a recent poll conducted in Iraq by ABC, NHK and BBC, perceptions that life has improved in Iraq contradict the lie that is the Bush administrations report.

In a poll of 22 countries, 67% want the US to leave Iraq within a year.  No country wanted the US to stay until the security situation improves, though Kenya and the Philippines were divided.  Interestingly, of the 19 countries who want the US out of Iraq, 65% of Britons, 61% of Americans and 63% of Australians want the US out too!

Here is a link to the BBC/WPO/GlobeScan poll

In my diary yesterday I related the appalling fact that a major transportation system in DC was closed for long periods of time on Sunday and that the airport wasn't even informed of the development.  For those who didn't read my diary last night a recap:

Sunday evening several stations in the subway system were closed because of smoke and other unexplained "instances" along the metro system in DC.  A colleague's son got trapped in this mess on the way to the airport, which had no knowledge of what was occurring.  Since said transportation involved metro service from the Pentagon through the Metro station at National Airport, you'd think someone would have told the airport. As I mentioned last night it is the job of DHS to facilitate communication whenever major transportation systems are affected by such high profile "incidents".

More below the fold . . .

DHS hard at work?  On Sunday evening parts of the Metro subway system in the Washington DC Metro area came to a screeching halt as smoke shut down 4 rail stations including the rail station at Reagan National airport.

According to WaPo:

Metro is checking into whether a sudden electrical surge is to blame for several small fires and smoke that shut down four rail stations last night.

Metro Deputy General Manager Gerald Francis said the outbreak is unprecedented in the transit agency's 31-year history, and apologized to riders for the inconvenience."

Many metro riders could not get to and from the Airport during this time period.  Follow me below the fold to see why this is important.

The House Resolution passed 246-182.  Seventeen Republicans joined 229 Democrats to pass the House version of the resolution.  It's being reported in BBC and CNN though the story hasn't made the mainstream internet sites.  It's now up to the Senate to respond.

Though many believe that the House and Senate should pass a measure defunding the war, I believe that this is an important first step.  Since the resolution is non-binding, it says something that so many Republicans chose not to oppose Bush's publicaly unpopular war.  They aren't even willing to support a measure that merely slaps him on the hand.  They're all lemmings.

UPDATE:  Seventeen Republicans supporting Resolution:

Castle
Coble
Tom Davis
Duncan
English (PA)
Gilcrest
Englis (SC)
Johnson (IL)
Jones (NC)
Keller
Kirk
La Tourette
Paul (TX)
Petri
Ramstad
Upton
Walsh (NY)

Democrats voting against

Marshall
Taylor

I realize everyones frustration with events in Iraq and the results of the Baker report.  That said, however, there are some important recommendations that should be examined and supported.

Regardless of your feelings on Iraq, the Decider is not about to go along with Democratic designs to withdraw from Iraq.  The only way Congress has to force Bush to do so, would be to defund the war, which very few Congressional Reps will want to do.

In fact, a few of these proposal could be passed in Congress as directions to the President or Sense of Congress resolutions.